The Washington metro area's median single-family home price fell slightly in the third quarter of 2026, dropping 0.2% year-over-year to $656,200, according to preliminary data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The dip puts the D.C. region in the minority nationally. Prices for existing single-family homes rose year-over-year in 78% of the nation's metro areas during the quarter, NAR reported. The national median price climbed 1.7% to $432,900, as first reported by FFXnow.

For Vienna homeowners weighing a sale, the regional picture is compounded by a statewide cooldown in buyer interest.

Buyer activity at 2026 low

The Virginia Realtors' monthly Confidence Survey, conducted Sept. 23-30, recorded buyer activity at 24 on a 0-to-100 scale. That is the lowest Buyer Activity Index reading of 2026, down from a peak of 54 in April. A total of 511 Virginia Realtors members responded, including 373 who completed a transaction in the prior month.

Higher mortgage rates were the top obstacle. About 33% of survey respondents cited high rates as the primary challenge for buyers. Another 9% pointed to limited housing choices, and roughly 5% said clients struggled to save for a down payment.

Seller activity, by contrast, held near the high end of its 2026 range. The Seller Activity Index hit 45 in September, up from 41 in August and within the 37-to-46 band recorded during the first nine months of the year.

Winter outlook: most agents expect lower prices

Looking ahead three months, 58% of Virginia Realtors surveyed said they expect home prices to be lower than in September. Only 12% predicted higher prices, and 24% anticipated little change. The survey covers Virginia statewide and is not a randomized sample; the trade group said it carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5.46%.

The three-month buyer activity outlook index fell for the fourth straight month, dropping to 25 in September from 37 in August. Only 4% of respondents expected strong buyer activity in December.

On the seller side, 19% of agents said their clients were reluctant to list because they hold low interest rates on their current mortgages.

NAR economist sees potential rebound

Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said in the Oct. 29 report that price declines in some markets "may also be brief if the local job market and economy are solid."

Nationally, the typical monthly mortgage payment on an existing single-family home with a 20% down payment reached $2,251 in the third quarter, up $69 from a year earlier, according to NAR.

NAR's fourth-quarter price data is scheduled for release in early February.